Anderson Forecast

According to senior economist David Shulman, with the economy generating jobs at a 200,000-a-month clip, the unemployment rate should soon drop to 4.6 percent.

Despite a first-quarter bump in the road, the U.S. economy remains on track. California can expect a steady decrease in unemployment.

First quarterly report for 2015 says the U.S. economy “looks like an island of stability in a very volatile world.”

The report foresees the U.S. economy likely growing at a 3 percent pace during the next two years, as lower oil prices and higher wages bolster consumer spending and the unemployment rate falls.

Real GDP for the U.S. will grow at about 3 percent over the next two years and the national unemployment will drop to 5.3 percent by the end of 2016.

The outlook is based on the recent Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey, which analyzes the three-year outlook for real estate development activity in California.

The current forecast picks up where March's left off, predicting "normal growth" in the 3 percent range through 2016. In California, the unemployment rate will continue to drop.